I still remember the chaos of the great chip famine of 2020-2023. As a tech analyst, my inbox was flooded with panicked messages from every sector imaginable. Automakers were shutting down production lines, gamers couldn’t find consoles, and even medical device manufacturers were sounding the alarm. We learned a hard lesson about the fragility of our global supply chains. Now that the dust has settled, the big question I keep asking myself is: what’s the next tech shortage? Because if we’re not looking ahead, we’re doomed to repeat the same mistakes.
The Ghost of the Last Supply Chain Crisis
To understand what’s coming, we have to remember what went wrong. The chip shortage wasn’t one single event; it was a perfect storm, a topic we’ve covered in-depth in our analysis of the why US cars cost more: the chip shortage. The pandemic caused a massive surge in demand for electronics, just as lockdowns shut down factories. This was layered on top of a “just-in-time” manufacturing philosophy that left no room for error, a trade war between the US and China, and a series of freak accidents like factory fires and droughts in Taiwan.
We survived it, but the experience exposed just how vulnerable our hyper-efficient, globalized world really is. Now, as I scan the horizon, I see three major contenders for the next tech shortage.
1. The AI Hardware Bottleneck
The first and most obvious candidate is one we’re already starting to feel: the AI hardware bottleneck. While the shortage of basic chips for cars and washing machines has eased, the demand for the specialized, high-powered GPUs needed to train and run AI models is exploding.
Think about it. Companies like OpenAI, Google, and Meta are in a fierce arms race, and the ammunition is computing power. This has created an almost insatiable appetite for chips from a single company: Nvidia. This isn’t a healthy market; it’s a monopoly, and it creates a massive single point of failure.
Building new, advanced chip factories (fabs) is not a quick fix. It takes years and tens of billions of dollars. As we’ve seen with the rollout of the CHIPS Act in the US, even with massive government investment, these projects face huge delays. So, while you might be able to buy a new car today, the AI revolution could grind to a halt if the supply of these specialized chips can’t keep up with the exponential growth in demand. This is one of the most critical global tech trends to watch.
2. The Raw Materials Squeeze
This is the shortage that keeps me up at night, because it’s much deeper and more fundamental than just silicon. The technologies that will define our future from electric vehicles and green energy to the data centers that power AI all rely on a handful of critical rare earth minerals.
We’re talking about elements like lithium and cobalt for batteries, and gallium and germanium for advanced semiconductors. The problem? The mining and processing of these materials are heavily concentrated in a few countries, with China being the dominant player.
We’ve already had a taste of what this means. When China imposed export restrictions on gallium and germanium, it sent shockwaves through the tech industry. This geopolitical leverage turns a simple supply chain issue into a powerful political weapon. As we continue decoding the core technologies of 2025, we have to realize that the digital world is built on a very physical, and very fragile, foundation of mined resources.
3. The Human Bottleneck
This might be the most surprising contender, but I believe it’s the most dangerous. The next tech shortage might not be a material at all; it could be a shortage of skilled people.
The semiconductor industry alone is projected to face a shortfall of over a million skilled workers by 2030. We’re building massive new factories in the US and Europe, but who is going to run them? We have a serious tech talent gap, from the PhDs who design the chips to the technicians who operate the complex machinery in the fabs.
This isn’t just a problem for the chip industry. As AI becomes more integrated into every job, we’re going to need a workforce that understands how to use these new tools effectively. As a recent report from the World Economic Forum highlights, the demand for AI and big data skills is growing faster than almost any other category.
If we don’t invest in STEM education and reskilling programs now, our ability to innovate will be limited not by the availability of silicon, but by the availability of talent.
My Final Take: Building a More Resilient Future
So, what’s the solution? The good news is, the last crisis forced a much-needed reality check. Companies are moving away from risky “just-in-time” models and are building more resilient “just-in-case” supply chains with bigger inventory buffers. Governments are investing billions in diversifying manufacturing to reduce geopolitical risk.
But as we look at the tech trends for 2025, it’s clear that we need to think bigger. We need to invest in a circular economy, finding better ways to recycle the precious materials in the billions of electronic devices we throw away each year. And most importantly, we need to invest in people.
The last supply chain crisis taught us that efficiency at the expense of resilience is a recipe for disaster. The next one will test whether we actually learned that lesson.
